Monday, April 13, 2020

The virus and the NYPD

Wow, some 20% of them are back on the force, recovered. 15 of 3500 died. How many are on long term disability?This is a representative sample, tell me something.

600 cops are not coming back to duty after a three week bout of the virus, unless their symptoms were mild. Some of us suffer the cold, we do not all get that macrophage burst that kills. A fixed proportion of the population suffers a severe allergic reaction, and that path is slightly different from direct damage or antibody production.

The NYPD has representative sample as good as it gets. A lot of them remain out sick, out where? 20% of the currently sick are home, not doing badly.  In two phases, they will be independently affected and the other 20% should have mild symptoms. 

So likely half us us have a mild case of the cold. Find out who has the severe allergy before they get infected. Segment out the vulnerable, find an allergy test then watch for the virus and trap the allergy reaction just before it hits.  Whoever find the allergy test gets a Nobel and 3 billion from Bill gates.

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