Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Europe dunnit

Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show

The virus in California likely came from Asia, but most of the air traffic in NYC is with Europe.

Wiki says:
On January 26, the CDC confirmed the first case in California, the third case in the U.S.
The first NYC case was Mar 1.  Basically it took a month to travel the reverse global path.  But spread rate in NYC must have been tremendous, the airplane, the airport, the mass transit, the elevators.  In the bay area it is the airport, then car to home. Then work is most likely a two or three story office building.

NYC will see the worse the soonest. The rest of us, in total, will be as bad as NYC in phase two. But the individual damage will be lesser and more widespread.

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