Spread rate

From a one day bridge tournament some 15% of participants tested positive. Fact, go search it.

This means mass transit NYC is well into phase two, three weeks ahead of my home town, Fresno. New York had a 15% rate, but they are now mostly immune and the spread rate should drop by a sixth.  The lockdown is also dropping spread rate now. But phase three, even with the lower spread rate, is already destined to reach the peak in 2-4 weeks, hospitals only then are unstressed.

Is New York past the point where lockdown really helps? Yes, just about, I would think. The biggest pay-off for New York is to get some good cocktails out of the trials and reduce illness time. That is the biggest payoff for NY and for the delayed phase twos around the country.