Thursday, April 18, 2019

Missed a recession in 2015

That is my reading of Mish's chart. That was a year and a half contraction in freight, almost a recession all by itself.

The 2018 growth in freight was the one time adjustment to lower corporate tax rates. We are kind of hoping that holds up for another two quarters, make it to 2020.

Care, extreme care. I can tell that the ten year is just not a happy camper at yields above 2.6, and the top bound seems to have shrunk, our goalposts have narrowed on the can kick. What happens when it becomes obvious, the Euler path is a ten year sequester, then what?  That is the question teachers, nurses, renters, infrstructuralists, greeners, and all the rest face; no discretionary spending but we skate through. Is it worth it?

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