Sunday, April 21, 2019

Since the early 1980s, firm dynamism—the process by which companies enter or leave the market—has markedly slowed. New businesses are forming a third less frequently, while the exit rate has remained relatively steady. This means that, on average, US companies are larger and older today than they used to be. The share of firms that are less than five years old has fallen by about one-third.

 The two lines in the chart, entry and exit for firms, represent firms adapting to discovered market constraints and arbitrage.  Those lines move to the extent we have debt capacity to make future bets.  We have less debt capacity, millennials have to deliver some 4% of profits to the Swamp to cover  the federal interest charges, you are getting fewer bets on the future.

We have a name for this, contraction.  Looking at the chart is is clear that e adjusted to a contracted configuration, permanently.  This will evolve into a deflationary spiral.

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